Thursday, October 23, 2008

THE BRADLEY EXCUSE

People have been asking me what I think the last gasp rightwing Republican effort will be to hang on to power. My answer: the so-called Bradley Effect.

It's named after Tom Bradley the successful African-American mayor of L. A. who ran for California governor in the '80s when polls showed him with a victory but he ended up losing. Some studies concluded that a small percentage of white voters lied to pollsters about not voting for Bradley for fear of appearing racist or prejudiced against him.

Subsequent studies of other similar cases, as well as contradictory cases, where black candidates either lost where polls said they wouldn't, or vice versa, have concluded that either there is a "Bradley Effect" or there isn't. So the science behind this supposition that a certain amount of white voters will get into the voting booth and be unable or unwilling to pull the lever for a black candidate they told pollsters they were voting for, or did vote for, is very iffy,

But notice how the more responsible seeming rightwing Republican commentators (like say William Bennet on CNN) will refer to it often lately, and how Democratic and liberal commentators will too often go along with it, assuming that there has to be a fair amount of prejudice still out there against voting for a partly African-American candidate.

But many studies show that percentage to be really small, almost insignificant in polling terms, and most prejudiced voters to be pretty outspoken with their opinions (there are many yotube videos showing interviews with supporters of McCain and even more so of Palin flat out admitting they won't vote for a "colored" candidate, or just saying that Obama is a Muslim terrorist), but these are not found in any significant numbers in Democratic districts or even in most "swin districts that polls show going for Obama this time.

But one study has projected a possible six percent difference from the "Bradley Effect"—meaning Obama could go into the election with anywhere around a six percent lead and lose and this study will be a ready excuse.

Which is why the rightwing is pushing it so much, and too many in the media are repeating it. Because if the rightwing Republicans attempts to rig the vote is successful—through purging voting roles in Democratic districts, or closely contested districts, of legitimate voters as has been proven they are doing in several states already (their success at keeping the media and the FBI focused on "voter fraud" has led to less attention focused on their voter purges, disqaulifying many legitimate voters who are registered Democrats, or tricking them into voting Republican through rigged or "faulty" voting machines, as has already been demonstrated in early voting in many states where voting machines are owned by a company run by Republicans, including rightwing Republican activists (who have proven since Nixon's dirty tricks team and Lee Atwater's deathbed confessions and Rove's blatant tactics that they are capable of any kind of illegal manipulation of actual votes and voters in order to gain and maintain power) who claim the "faulty" machines were just "calibrated wrong" (which means when you push the Obama rectangle it registers for McCain)—they can claim any percentage difference of ten or less is a result of "the Bradley Effect" and too many in the media and even among Democrats, will accept it (as they too easily did the Florida debacle in 2000 after the phony Rove directed "protest rally" that turned into an invasion and pressure on the vote counters, etc., and as they did the voting machine problems in Ohio that showed great disparity between exit polls and what the machines reported).

The only bright side to such a scneario would be if the Democrats are able to secure a large enough majority in the Senate this time (60 or more) to make it impossible for Republicans to block their votes and actions. Then they could hold investigations to expose and prosecute such vote manipulation. But if the rightwing Republican dirty tricks work, the Democrats may not be successful in capturing 60 seats in the Senate either.

Hopefully the Obama lawyers and poll observers are more ready to contest and fight any McCain win that contradicts entrance and exit polls, which until Florida 2000 had proved to be correct in every previous election.

6 comments:

JIm said...

We should have seen ads with Wright and his "Chickens coming home to roost" after 9/11 and his "No,No,No, God Dam America". It would be nice to see Obama with the Kenyan, Odinga(who had an agreement with the Muslim party to bring the country Shariah law) also, since he raised $1mil for him in his last election. Unfortunately, McCain has ruled that off limits.

Note: Democrats are outsourcing jobs overseas!

Political attacks came from Romania
Sands files complaint with commissioner of political practices
By TOM LUTEY
Of The Gazette Staff

Republicans, furious about negative campaign phone calls made by Democrats last week in Billings, did everything but label the tactic un-American.

Turns out, they could have.

The calls were made from Romania, according to phone records submitted this week to the state commissioner of political practices.

JIm said...

This from the poll that was most accurate in the last presidential election.

IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Ten
Posted: Wednesday, October 22, 2008


Contrary to other polls, some of which show Obama ahead by double digits, the IBD/TIPP Poll shows a sudden tightening of Obama's lead to 3.7 from 6.0. McCain has picked up 3 points in the West and with independents, married women and those with some college. He's also gaining momentum in the suburbs, where he's gone from dead even a week ago to a 20-point lead. Obama padded gains in urban areas and with lower-class households, but he slipped 4 points with parents.

harryn said...

makes sense michael - the rove 'strategy' of last minute dirty 'tactics' has worked in recent history ...

i do have to laugh when i see life imitate art - like when these obviously sweaty, nervous guys in charge of the problem voting machines say the mistake is human error because even though the finger is where it should be - it roles when you press it or that statistically there can be a poorly calibrated 'lemon' among the thousands produced ...

sounds like dan akroyd's character on snl when he played irwin mainway - the corrupt toymaker who extolled the virtues of dangerous toys - like the bag of glass ... "yeah - so what's the problem?"

and to push that point a little further, i've never seen so many conservative talking heads reminding me of jon lovitz's character - the pathological liar, tommy flanagan - "yeah - that's the ticket" ... today that role could be revived to parody rush limbaugh [or some of jim's comments even] ...

and i don't doubt that some of the polls are changing with the ignorant, inflamatory lies that john and sarah are spreading to the lowest common denominator of the population - and if anyone wants to debate elitism, i doubt that neither mccain or palin would be caught dead with some of the constituents they're trying to manipulate for votes ...

ever notice how the 'blue' states or regions coincide with the most educated or informed areas of the country ...

write on ...

John M. Lally said...

The idiots running McCain's campaign may be hateful racist scandalmongers, but they are too inept to be compared to Rove. Rove was 100 times worse because these tactics worked for him. These guys couldn't hate their way out of a paper bag.

JIm said...

This morning, I was sitting in my office watching the Barak, I am a Socialist, Obama Financial Panic of 08 unfold on my screen. Many polls and the main stream media have many convinced that this campaign is over. Needing a break, I went to the McCain rally at the National Western Stock Show Arena. It was a rousing affair, with many veterns and a large enthusiastic crowd. John Elway, who is a demigod around here introduced John McCain. The speech was what we have heard a lot of this last week; Obama's desire to spread Joe the Plumber's money around, Biden's prediction that an inexperience new president will be sorely tested by our enemies, Obama attempting to duplicate the strategy of Herbert Hoover etc.

We had the oblicatory protestors with life size pictures of the Anointed One, out side the Arena. Inside the protestors were not as polite. Two or three tried to disrupt but were drowned out by shouts of John McCain and USA.

Colorado is a battle grownd state. So, for the first time in my life I have a campaign sticker on my car announcing "Average Joe for McCain Palim." This weekend will be another first. I will be making campaign calls from GOP headquarters in Lakewood, CO.

Country First!

John M. Lally said...

Alaska first!