It’s very interesting that Ron Paul continues to outdo either Rudy G. or Fred Thompson, or both of them, in the primaries, but the TV pundits don’t seem to notice, or at least the mainstream media doesn’t.
I didn’t hear anyone mention the fact that Paul got 8% of the vote in Mchigan, ahead of Rudy and Fred, votes I think we can assume would have gone to McCain if Paul wasn’t in the race, and therefore would have meant a win for McCain. No one mentioned that either.
There was talk though, that some Democratic and independent spoilers planned to vote for Romney just to keep the Republicans off balance, creating three different front runners having won primaries, with a possible fourth in Florida if Rudy takes it as predicted by some.
But if the Republicans can’t decide by their convention and it goes to the floor there, that might not help Democrats. Yes, if the Democratic candidate is chosen by February’s primaries, so-called super-duper Tuesday, he or she will have had more time to raise money, but they will not have had a single opponent to aim at, and the Democratic convention will be more boring because the candidate will be known, while the Republican one will be more dramatic and therefore gain more viewers to see the outcome and perhaps more supporters for whoever wins.
It’s a tough one for the Republicans. Romney almost certainly can’t win a general election. Too many flip-flops and too many people suspicious or downright frightened by his Mormonism.
McCain could win a general election, but he’s too independent on some issues for the Republican base, too unpredictable for the Republican bosses, and too old with a history of health issues to not hold the possibility of something going wrong before the general election.
Huckabee is a mixed bag. He has some new ideas, though probably impossible to implement (like the so-called flat tax, the national sales tax replacing all other taxes, which most economists say won’t work and will create a huge underground economy with no regulation at all etc.) and some old ones (like his Christian fundamental beliefs that deny evolution and abhor homosexuality and believe only born-agains get into heaven, etc.), which makes him highly unlikely to be able to win a general election as well.
That leaves Rudy G. and Fred Thompson, neither of whom have done very well so far, but could pull a late start in the South. If either of them did that (Rudy supposedly has the best chance with Florida) they’d have a better shot than most others, except McCain, and would be preferable to the Republican establishment, if not the base.
But they are also the scariest, from the perspective of anyone who believes this country is on the wrong track and has been in fact partially destroyed by the present administration. Rudy has all the petty personal problematic traits of Junior (surrounding himself with yes men and cronies who aren’t necessarily the best for the jobs or for the country etc.) plus an even bigger ego and even less patience for anyone who doesn’t agree with him and give him all credit and loyalty, or really fealty.
He also has as his top political advisors people who believe we have to invade Iran the same way Junior surrounded himself with neocons who believed we had to invade Iraq, long before 9/11, and just used that as a convenient excuse to do it.
And when mayor of New York, he demonstrated little understanding of or sympathy for the rights of citizens who aren’t his friends (as well as poor judgment in placing the anti-terrorist security central command in the World Trade Center after it had already been bombed once despite warnings from all the experts which, like Junior, he ignored and went with his own “gut instinct” etc.) having terrible relations with the black community and other minorities and equally bad relationship with the arts community, etc. which, he seemed to be unaware, is one of the main “industries” in the city.
Thompson is just spoiled and lazy, and is further to the right on many issues than any of the other candidates and even junior in some instances. But he doesn’t really have a chance. As neither does Paul, the most interesting of the Republican candidates, because he is really a Libertarian, and contrarian, and as such isn’t taken seriously, even though he’s the one who most often speaks the truth at Republican debates, but is usually laughed down, not only by the other candidates but by the moderators, and the media in general.
Too bad. I’d love to see a debate between Paul and Kucinich (sp?) the Democratic candidate who gets the same treatment and seems to serve the same purpose, in terms of the “truth” etc. but has not made nearly as good a showing in the primaries as Paul has (partly because of his sharing having seen UFOs in the past).
It would be great if after the next few primaries, Paul’s still in the race but Thompson and Romney (and hopefully even Rudy) have to drop out after no wins, (or no more wins in Romney’s case) and it’s down to McCain, Huckabee and Paul. That would be a really interesting debate too.
Any way you slice it, this has got to be the most interesting, most complicated, most unpredictable presidential primary season in memory for most of us. I just hope it turns out for the best, and not the worst. Stay tuned.